Welcome to this week’s edition of the Weekly Trading Insight! As we navigate through a dynamic market landscape influenced by technological advancements and key economic indicators, our aim is to equip you with the necessary insights to make informed trading decisions. This week, we delve into the latest market data, highlight significant trends, and identify opportunities that lie ahead.
Market Recap
- US 30: Closed at 41,980.80, down -654.4 points or -1.53%
- US 500: Ended at 5,821.80, declining -96.5 points or -1.63%
- Dow Jones: Finished at 41,938.45, dropping -696.75 points or -1.63%
- S&P 500: Reached 5,827.00, down -91.30 points or -1.54%
- Nasdaq: Closed at 19,161.63, shedding -317.25 points or -1.63%
- S&P 500 VIX: Increased to 19.54, up +1.47 points or +8.14%
- Dollar Index: Rose to 109.49, gaining +0.490 or +0.45%
Feature Analysis: Raymond James Projects Stable Energy Market in 2025 Amid AI and Market Dynamics
Raymond James forecasts WTI crude oil to average $70 per barrel in 2025, with Brent crude maintaining a $5 premium, while U.S. natural gas prices are expected to rise to $4 per Mcf. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East have had minimal impact, as oil price volatility is driven by supply-demand dynamics, weak Chinese demand, OPEC uncertainty, and a strong U.S. dollar. AI is set to significantly influence the sector, requiring investment in gas, renewables, and nuclear energy. Although energy accounts for only 3% of the S&P 500, investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic despite commodity price uncertainties.
Trading Strategies and Ideas
- S&P 500 Index: The S&P 500 ($SPX) has dropped below its post-election support at 5,870 and is now trading under intermediate-term support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 5,820. A close above the 100-day SMA would signal incremental bullishness, but the current technical setup leans bearish. Near-term outlook: bearish.
- Nasdaq 100 Index: The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) has fallen over 2.5% this week, reaching a five-week low and breaching near-term support at the 50-day SMA for the first time since September. This suggests a potential shift in bullish momentum. Near-term outlook: bearish.
Upcoming Economic Events
- Monday (Jan. 13): Treasury Budget
- Tuesday (Jan. 14): Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Wednesday (Jan. 15): Consumer Price Index (CPI), EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Empire State Manufacturing, MBA Mortgage Applications Index
- Thursday (Jan. 16): Business Inventories, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Export Prices, Import Prices, Initial Claims, NAHB Housing Market Index, Philadelphia Fed Index, Retail Sales
- Friday (Jan. 17): Building Permits, Capacity Utilization, Housing Starts, Industrial Production, Net Long-Term TIC Flows
For detailed insights and more information, visit Reuters and Yahoo Finance.
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Disclaimer
This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting a financial advisor.
